Ryanair Q1 results: ‘a lot of unknowns into third and fourth quarter’

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Ryanair Holdings plc (NASDAQ: RYAAY) reported better-than-expected quarterly revenue on Monday. Shares jumped roughly 8.0% as the low-cost air carrier also swung to a profit for Q1.

Notable figures in Ryanair Q1 results

According to the Irish airlines, it made a profit of €187.5 million (£159.09 million), which was well below the consensus of €406.6 million but significant improvement from last year’s €272.6 million net loss.

At €2.60 billion, revenue topped the FactSet consensus by 2.40%. The air carrier flew 45.5 million passengers in the recent quarter; load factor jumped sharply to 92%, as per the press release.

Ryanair refrained from offering detailed guidance for the future on several uncertainties related to the geopolitical tensions, oil prices volatility and the possibility of a new COVID wave this winter.

Highlights from CFO’s interview on CNBC

CFO Neil Sorahan on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” said bookings and fares were also better than last year but a material impact of the Ukraine war was still evident. He added:

We’ve reallocated capacity over the summer. Bookings are very strong. Load factor at 95% in June. I’d be disappointed if we weren’t somewhere up around 95% – 96% for July. I think Q2 will be good but there’s still a lot of unknowns into the third and fourth quarter.

The stock price is down nearly 30% for the year. For the balance of fiscal 2023, Ryanair expects elevated oil prices to result in higher costs on its “20% unhedged fuel”. But CFO Sorahan added:

I think given the market share that we have, the amount of capacity that’s out of the market, it’s inevitable we’d be able to recover much of this. Ancillaries performed well and we expect that to continue to perform strongly.

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